Assessing Secondary Curriculums' Impact on Postsecondary First Year Academic Performance Using Data Science Techniques
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Authors
Fitzgerald, Barrie Dwain
Issue Date
2024-04-16
Type
Dissertation
Language
en_US
Keywords
Dissertations, Academic--United States , Education , Educational leadership , Education, Higher--Administration , Academic achievement , Statistics , College dropouts--Prevention
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Abstract
Regional comprehensive universities offer accessible and diverse undergraduate educational programs, while grappling with funding cuts and affordability. The study’s first research question underscores the enduring importance of factors such as student characteristics, pre-college characteristics, and financial situations. The findings highlight high school GPA's (HS GPA) pivotal role in academic performance. Higher HS GPAs correlate with successful academic performance resulting in higher retaining likelihoods; conversely, lower HS GPAs are associated with academic struggles and increased departure likelihoods. HS curriculum variables also impact academic performance, notably in extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. The second research question centers on the algorithms’ predictive power. XGBoost and random forest models consistently outperform the other models in predicting GPAs. Prioritizing area under the curve values for retention, both XGBoost and random forest models are statistically comparable for developing predictive algorithms, despite facing challenges with low specificity rates. Only slight enhancements in predictions were detected in the upsample ensemble learning models.
Implications for practice underscore the importance of targeted interventions through leveraging data science techniques and machine learning algorithms to identify and allocate support resources for at-risk students. This research significantly contributes to the discussion on student success in higher education by providing practical insights and guiding evidence-based practices. As education evolves, integrating data science into strategic planning becomes pivotal for shaping the trajectory of student success initiatives.
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This dissertation is protected by the Copyright Laws of the United States (Public Law 94-553, revised in 1976). Consistent with fair use as defined in the Copyright Laws, brief quotations from this material are allowed with proper acknowledgement. Use of the materials for financial gain with the author's expressed written permissions is not allowed.