Predictive Model for Student Performance on the Science Georgia High School Graduation Test
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Authors
Dowler, Carol Ann
Issue Date
2012-10-22
Type
Thesis
Language
en_US
Keywords
Curriculum and Instruction , 2011 , Carol Dowler , High School , Graduation , Drop out , Science GHSGT , CRCT , EOCT , Georgia , Test , economic status , parenting , social
Alternative Title
Abstract
Georgia has one of the lowest high school graduation rates in the United States with approximately 60% of students graduating within four years of entry into the ninth grade. A 28% failure rate on the Science Georgia High School Graduation Test (GHSGT) may contribute to low graduation rates. This study developed a statistical model to predict performance on the Science GHSGT. Nine learner characteristics were selected for evaluation as predictors of Science GHSGT performance, and the research was guided by the following questions: (a) Can performance on the Science GHSGT (i.e., Pass or Fail) be accurately predicted from gender, ethnicity, performance in previous high school science classes, previous grade retention, performance on eighth-grade Reading Criterion-Referenced Competency Test (CRCT), performance on eighth-grade Mathematics CRCT, performance on eighth-grade Science CRCT, performance on high school Physical Science End of Course Test (EOCT), or performance on high school Biology EOCT?; (b) What is the accuracy and reliability of the developed prediction model?; and (c) Does cross-validation of the data confirm the accuracy and reliability of the analytical model? Data were extracted from 712 permanent student records in a southern Georgia high school. Selected predictors were evaluated via logistic regression for correlation with performance on the Science GHSGT. Statistical analysis revealed that performance on the Physical Science EOCT, performance on the Biology EOCT, and gender are statistically significant predictors of performance on the Science GHSGT. Research using the developed prediction model and a broader sample of student data is recommended. Analysis of predictive correlations between eighth-grade Science CRCT and performance on Physical Science EOCT and Biology EOCT is also recommended.
Description
Dowler Dissertation Fall 2011