Abstract:
Historically, populations have risen throughout the United States while crime trends have increased incrementally with the rising population rates. However, since 1994 population rates continue to steadily rise but overall crime rates have decreased. The debate over this crime reduction phenomenon is a hot button topic among academics and law enforcement professionals. Individual states craft specific sentencing guidelines and some states have chosen a more stringent path to offender recidivism in the form of selective incapacitation laws which have been titled, ―Three-Strikes Laws.‖ This study sought to ascertain if states that have enacted these selective incapacitation laws observed discernable differences in crime as opposed to those states without such laws. This study conducted a quantitative analysis of the aforementioned crime statistics employing an annual cross-sectional multiple time-series analysis with pre- and post-comparisons of statistical crime data from 1980-2012 by means of a one-sample t test to evaluate the mean rate of change for Total Crime, Violent Crime, and Property Crime within the sample states (n = 9) using UCR data obtained from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). This study also examined population rates within these sample states, both pre- and post-enactment periods using a linear regression model to determine the relationship between population and crime rates. Based on the results of this quantitative analysis, it appears that selective incapacitation laws or ―Three Strikes Laws‖ are ineffective in accomplishing the goal of reducing the overall crime rates. This study also provides substantial evidence that there is a strong relationship between population and crime rates.